Market analysis

Each cohort — one project and one bedroom count — gets a transparent weighted score out of 100. Nothing here is a forecast: every input is a measured figure from the last 12 months of closed sales, plus live listings where a feed covers the cohort.

• 30%How far the cohort closes below its own area and bedroom median.
• 25%Recent sales pace, blending the 3-month ratio with absolute 90-day volume.
• 20%Months of inventory: active listings against the current sales pace.
• 15%The 3-month pace against the cohort's own 12-month baseline.
• 10%Whether this bedroom count commands a rate premium in its district.

Buy, watch, pass

Thresholds, not opinions: 68 and above is buy, 50 and above is watch. A cohort with fewer than 8 sales in 12 months cannot be a buy unless it scores 65, and an oversupplied cohort is capped at watch unless it is also at a discount to its cohort median.

Score bands

70 and above reads as strong, 50 to 69 as moderate, below 50 as limited. The bands describe the score, not the property: a limited score in a district you know well may still be the right purchase.

Missing supply data

Where no live listing covers a cohort, supply scores as unknown at the neutral midpoint and the supply tags do not fire. Nothing is modelled in place of a real listing.